ROMNEY WORDSWORTH – Wednesday is Trump Day, so let’s review the state of the Primary Race so far.
The RCP Poll Average has Donald Trump maintaining his lead over the GOP field with 23.4%. Ben Carson is hanging on to second place with 17%, with Carly Fiorina in third place with 11.6 %. Marco Rubio has moved up to fourth place from his prior obscurity, with a respectable 9.6%, while Jeb Bush fades to fifth place with 9.2%.
The rest of the GOP field follows with Ted Cruz at 6th (6.2%), John Kasich at 7th (3.6%), Chris Christie at 8th (3.4%), Mike Huckabee at 9th (3.2%), and Rand Paul at 10th (2.4%). The Kiddie Table Candidates (Lindsey Graham, Bobby Jindal, George Pataki, and Rick Santorum) continue to poll in asterisk territory.
The latest Fox News and Quinnipiac polls show much the same percentages. CNN’s latest poll shows Carly Fiorina in second place with 15% and Ben Carson at third place with 14%, the other candidates’ percentages being similar to the RCP Average.
The latest ABC/Washington Post Poll has substantially different percentages, showing Donald Trump with a commanding lead of 33%, and Ben Carson at second place at 20%. Carly Fiorina in this poll only garners a mere 2%, placing her just above Chris Christie (1%) and the Kiddie Table Candidates (*%). The latest Monmouth Poll has similar percentages.
The latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll shows a different picture, with Trump (21%) and Carson (20%) in a near dead heat, and Fiorina and Rubio tied at third with 11% each. The latest CBS poll also shows Trump (27%) and Carson (23%) in a close match, with all the other major candidates in single digits.
On the Democrat side of the race, the Clinton Coronation continues to be going off the tracks, with Clinton consistently hovering in the low 40’s in all the latest polls. Sanders continues with anywhere from 25-35% depending on which poll you look at, and the polling generally shows Joe Biden (not officially in the race yet) at around 20%. The Democrat Kiddie Table Candidates of O’Malley, Webb, and Chaffee fail to poll over 1%, or don’t even register at all.
It has been said that Republicans fall in line, while Democrats fall in love, with respect to their candidates. Clearly, emotionalism rules the day in the Democrat Party, so Hillary’s flagging numbers indicate her candidacy is in real trouble. The only emotion that she raises is Clinton Fatigue, and she is giving speeches to near empty ballrooms. Compare that to Donald Trump filling stadiums with 20,000 cheering, energized voters.
Speaking of The Donald, Trump recently rolled out his Tax Policy. I find it to be somewhat conservative, politically speaking, with a flattened rate structure of 10%/15%/20%/25%. A top rate of 25% is significantly lower than the current top rate of 39.6%. Trump would also levy NO income tax on single rate payers making $50,000.00 or less, or married couples making $100,000.00 or less. This will be a tremendous tax break for most of the Middle Class. Trump plans to balance this by taking away the tax loopholes used by the very wealthy, like eliminating the “transferred interest” deduction used by Hedge Fund managers to pay no income taxes. While this is not enough to make up for lost revenue under Static Scoring, history shows that lowering tax rates in this way actually increases revenue by reviving a flagging economy. It worked for John F. Kennedy in the 1960’s and for Ronald Reagan in the 1980’s. This is called Dynamic Scoring, and it’s more accurate, because it accounts for human nature and tax avoidance.
In contrast, Ben Carson, Rand Paul, and Ted Cruz are all running on a Flat Tax Plan, which is much more politically bold. Flat Tax plans typically get demagogued by Democrats claiming that they are more regressive on the poor, and they are riskier to sell to voters. Trump may be demonstrating superior political acumen on this issue, by only proposing a flattening of the rate structure, rather than going all the way to a single flat rate structure.
Meanwhile, world events continue to play into Donald Trump’s hands on the issue of Immigration. The debacle of the Muslim invasion of Europe, with skyrocketing incidences of rape, crime, and civil disturbances, continues to be an ongoing political ad in support of Trump’s immigration policies.