Nearly the trifecta as real jobs and durable goods data show U.S. already in recession

It’s that time of the month once again when we see the government contradicting itself by manipulating economic data to spin the fact that we are in a recession, but unwilling to admit it.  In two data sets published on July 2 by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and in the number of factory orders, the trifecta has been nearly reached showing that the U.S. is no longer in a fed stimulated artificial recovery, but now into a full blown recession.

All that is missing of course is the GDP data, which by numbers produced by renowned statistician John Williams, already places us in a declining economy.

In what was an “unambiguously” unpleasant June jobs payrolls report, with both April and May jobs revised lower, the fact that the number of Americans not in the labor force soared once again, this time by a whopping 640,000 or the most since April 2014 to a record 93.6 million, with the result being a participation rate of 62.6 or where it was in September 1977, will merely catalyze even more upside to the so called “market” which continues to reflect nothing but central bank liquidity, and thus – the accelerating deterioration of the broader economy. – Zerohedge

Workers not in labor force

Graph courtesy of Zerohedge

And of course if you add in the 93.6 million available Americans without jobs to the model, you come out with a REAL unemployment rate of 23.1%.

real unemployment rate

Chart courtesy of Shadowstats

But unemployment rates are just one of the three primary components that determine whether a nation is in a growing economy, or a recessionary one.  So added to today’s jobs numbers is the data tied to factory orders, which came in at the biggest annual drop since the last recession that started in 2008.

This has never happened outside of recession… Year-over-year, factory orders dropped 6.3% (adjusted) but 8% non-adjusted, the most since the financial crisis. Against expectations of a 0.5% drop MoM, manufacturers saw new orders tumble 1.0% and previous months were revised dramatically lower. Factory orders has now missed 10 of the last 11 months.

Factory Orders have fallen for 9 of the last 10 months… – Zerohedge

Factory orders

Chart courtesy of Zerohedge

So fellow Americans, welcome to the recession.  And as the Fed continues to obfuscate the severity of the economy by jawboning whether they will or won’t raise interest rates sometime in the coming months, or that the talking heads over at CNBC will spin the data to get you to want to buy more stocks, remember this…

The government and the central bank will never admit to how bad an economy is until long after the effects are being felt, or until after it has already concluded.  And we saw this during the Great Recession when former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke waited over a year before we were in the worst economic recession since the 1930’s to finally come out and admit just how bad things actually were.

Kenneth Schortgen Jr is a writer for,, and To the Death Media, and hosts the popular web blog, The Daily Economist. Ken can also be heard Wednesday afternoons giving an weekly economic report on the Angel Clark radio show.

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