One of three major black swans could trigger dollar collapse

In this month’s commentary from the Hat Trick Newsletter, Dr. Jim Willie reveals three potential black swans on the near horizon that could trigger a collapse of the dollar, and even the entire Western banking system.

Nearly all three are tied in some fashion to the price of oil, and the derivatives that are tied to these contracts which are held by most of the major Western banks.  In addition, the decline of economic activity and subsequent recessions in emerging markets have the potential as well to expand the globe’s current deflationary environment, and usher in any number of defaults that range between $6 and $11 trillion.

The triggers for profound unspeakable sudden crisis are lead by A) a continued decline in the crude oil price, B) bank failures from expired oil contract hedges, and C) the default of between $6 and $11 trillion in Emerging Market debt.

One or more of these events is likely to occur in the next few months, probably all three. All three are extensions of the death of the USDollar, which is manifested in its rise. Like a balloon it will pop. The system will not be able to withstand the shock. Systemic breakdown will give way to failure of the entire monetary system upon which the USDollar rests. The Gold Standard will be urged on, first in trade, then in banking, finally in currency. The USDollar will be swept aside, its rubble put in the dustbin of history, the memories likened to Rome during the Nero period.

When the next crisis hits, it will be five times worse than the Lehman event within the United States in 2008. When the next crisis hits, it will be five times worse than the Asian Meltdown internationally in 1998. – Jim Willie via Silver Doctors

Little if anything at all has been said in the mainstream media about the lowered oil prices that have permeated the economy over the past six months, and very few are putting these pieces together as a potential link to the expansion of global war.  However, like most eras in history where a global reserve was held and controlled by a single nation, the final stages of that control are most often tied to war and efforts made to hold onto the reserve as long as possible.


As the Fed has attempted to fuel bubble after bubble with ZIRP and QE, banks have expanded their risk speculation far beyond a housing bubble, and investing in the stock markets.  And with so many trillions of dollars invested in the unprofitable sphere of fracking and oil production over the past few years, a day of reckoning is coming fast, and the signal continues to be the precipitous decline in the price of oil.

Kenneth Schortgen Jr is a writer for,, and To the Death Media, and hosts the popular web blog, The Daily Economist. Ken can also be heard Wednesday afternoons giving an weekly economic report on the Angel Clark radio show.