ELDER PATRIOT – Establishment Republicans are doubling down on the same policies that have resulted in over 50% of their base abandoning them in favor of outside candidates that have never held elected office. This may mean that the party elders at the RNC are considering a nuclear option at the convention next year.
On Wednesday, Jeb Bush appeared on CNN’s “Situation Room” where he told Wolf Blitzer, “So, John Boehner passed, through his body, repeal of Obamacare, reform of the FDA, passed a budget that limited spending. In fact, spending has been limited under his leadership, and it’s smaller today than it was four or five years ago, as it relates to — in the post-stimulus era. He’s done a good job.”
So why was Boehner made to walk the plank? “Because you have a small number of members of the Republican caucus that want more, and they’re willing to disrupt the whole process to be able to get what they want. But they’re not going to get what they want. I mean, the irony of this is that the next leader’s going to have the exact same problems.”
Bush chose his words carefully, “but they’re not going to get what they want,” and they were said with a total disregard for the polls that show majority support for exactly what that “small number of Republicans” have been holding out for.
Then there’s Marco Rubio who sounded like a bleeding heart liberal when he had the temerity to suggest that the militant and racist group “Black Lives Matter” is “legitimate.”
“It is a fact that in the African-American community around this country there has been, for a number of years now, a growing resentment toward the way law enforcement and the criminal justice system interacts with the community. It is particularly endemic among young African-American males – that in some communities in this country have a much higher chance of interacting with criminal justice than higher education. We do need to face this. It is a serious problem in this country.”
Voters can add this to Rubio’s membership in the Gang of Eight and his meeting with the Bilderberg Group as evidence that he has no plans to embrace conservative policy.
Let’s not forget Rand Paul who had the opportunity to end Mitch McConnell’s consistent delivery of the Senate to President Obama but instead threw his endorsement to McConnell in the Kentucky Republican primary.
In a world where every statement a candidate makes is focus group tested why would the party’s establishment candidates be so tone deaf to their own polls?
It’s becoming apparent that the party has run the numbers and that they feel they may be able to “steal” the nomination for the last standing establishment candidate regardless of who the top choice among the voters may be. That’s right, the rank and file be damned! How can they do this? Simple. Because of Republican nominating rules an establishment candidate may only need to attract half of the votes during the primaries as an outsider will be required to.
It will require 1236 delegates to secure the nomination at the convention. Of the 2470 total delegates that will determine the party’s presidential candidate there will be 605 bonus and super delegates at the nominating convention who are bound to no one. They are party leaders and members of the RNC. Who do you think they will vote for? There are 1865 delegates that are in play during the primaries.
That means that unless the supporters of the outside candidates coalesce around a single candidate and secure 67% (1236) of the 1865 electoral delegates they can be ignored by leadership at the nominating convention in favor of an establishment candidate that has managed to garner only 34% (631 plus 605 equal 1236) of the delegates.
With some states electoral delegates allocated on winner-take-all rules and others on proportionality there are an abundance of opportunities for the establishment to, in some cases, insert candidates to peel off votes from the front-runner, and in other cases to pour tens of millions of dollars – much of them your dollars – into winning outright.
It’s a purposely-convoluted process instituted for only one reason, to maintain control of the party despite what the voters want. It’s a scary thought that our governing establishment have rigged things so that it only takes 34% of the vote to enter our country into a treaty (or elect a candidate that the people have openly rejected) but we must override the party that ostensibly represents us with two-thirds of the vote to get our candidate on the ticket.
Buckle up. This could get really hairy before it’s over.