ELDER PATRIOT – Over the past couple of months as the Republican field of candidates winnowed itself Ted Cruz began calling for those still in the race to drop out as their mathematical chances to reach the 1237 delegates necessary to win the nomination without a contested convention became mathematically unlikely.
The Cruz mantra became, “A vote for Marco Rubio is a vote for Donald Trump” and, more recently, “A vote for John Kasich is a vote for Donald Trump,” as it became apparent that a path to the magic 1237 was no longer possible for each of them.
Well, guess what? Ted Cruz no longer has a path to 1237. Even if he sweeps Wisconsin on Tuesday the race heads east after that and Mr. Cruz will need to corral 774 of the remaining 839 unpledged delegates to reach that number. The magic number for eliminating Mr. Cruz has been reduced to 65. Any combination of 65 delegates that Mr. Cruz doesn’t win in the remaining 18 states leaves him short of 1237.
The Northeast will not be kind to Mr. Cruz where polls show him trailing both Mr. Trump and Mr. Kasich in many states. The first of those to be contested will be New York on April 19th.
New York has 95 delegates and with Mr. Cruz barely breaking 15% support he is now facing the prospect of not securing even a single delegate from the state. New Yorkers would like nothing better than to be the ones to put a resounding end to Mr. Cruz’s aspirations as they remind themselves of his disparaging comments regarding “New York” values.
Mr. Cruz’s pending elimination became obvious after he lost all 58 delegates to Mr. Trump in Arizona almost two weeks ago. For Mr. Cruz, the ultimate delegate counter, his fate was well known to him yet he plodded on claiming he could and would win.
So let me be the first to call for Mr. Cruz to suspend his campaign. Mr. Cruz knows, we all know that a vote for Ted Cruz has become a vote for Paul Ryan. Ted Cruz is now nothing more than a spoiler like those he accused of being earlier in this campaign.
There is no chance the he can win a floor fight against Donald Trump. The Republican elites will see to that. If they can deny Mr. Trump for falling short of 1237, (Trump will have hundreds of more delegates than the highly unpopular Mr. Cruz,) then they can deny anyone else.
Ted Cruz knows this too, and that leaves him playing the role of spoiler only to deny Mr. Trump the nomination. This is a strange position for a man who claimed to be an outsider, too. He finds himself in the position of undermining the candidate whose policies he’s been co-opting over the past two months. So much for Mr. Cruz’s fealty to the voters he has been courting.
It’s now obvious that Mr. Cruz was never an outsider. His role was as a firewall for the establishment who knew they faced an outraged electorate because they had systematically disenfranchised them over the past eight years.
Mr. Cruz is now in the position of running interference for Paul Ryan who is the likely establishment candidate to emerge if Mr. Trump doesn’t reach 1237 delegates and the party hacks are successful at denying him the nomination on the early ballots.
The last piece of this puzzle addresses Mr. Cruz’s need for cover when he doesn’t support Mr. Trump. Mr. Cruz will, after all, need an excuse for abandoning the voters who counted on him. He addressed this by orchestrating “the war of the wives” and focusing his false outrage at Mr. trump’s response. Mr. Cruz fired two salvos over a two-week span before Mr. Trump answered back with only a cryptic threat. The timeline and events are recounted here.
Voters now know who Mr. Cruz really is and they have enough time to reject his brazen about face at the ballot box. For those who want to end the elites’ control of what was once an honorable political party, Donald Trump is now your only choice.