The Delegate Math Doesn’t Lie

ELDER PATRIOT – If the polls that have Donald Trump holding double-digit leads in the upcoming two contests hold for another two weeks, Ted Cruz will be reduced to playing spoiler.  The door to 1237 committed delegates will have closed after North Dakota and Wisconsin have finished voting unless Cruz virtually sweeps both states.  Even if he miraculously survives he would then need 100% of the delegates still uncommitted in every one of the remaining 17 states.  Good luck.

Following the two contests immediately ahead stands the New York State primary with its treasure trove of 95 delegates and where the most recent poll shows Donald Trump more than 50% ahead of Mr. Cruz.  Even should Mr. Cruz win in Wisconsin and North Dakota the 1237 delegates necessary for the nominated will no longer be within his reach after April 19th.

It’s obvious to everyone, including the Senator himself that he will soon be reduced to eating the words he’s used to chastise John Kasich for staying in a race he can’t win.  Cruz is quickly coming to the time where his value in making a deal with Mr. trump is maximized, if it hasn’t already passed.

Mr. Cruz is walking a dangerously thin line as we near the final nails being driven into his campaign’s coffin.  Should he lose both Wisconsin and North Dakota, Mr. Trump may conclude that he can run the delegate table and that he has no need for Mr. Cruz.

Mr. Trump has passed the tipping point and he’s now running downhill to towards the nomination.  He has to secure 59% of the remaining delegates and, while that’s a tall order, it is a mark he has successfully eclipsed over the past eight contests.  And, now the landscape becomes even friendlier to him.

The recent willingness by the Republican establishment to embrace Mr. Cruz may be a result of their realization that they no longer have a dog in this fight couple with their calculation that he has no path to defeating Hillary Clinton in the general election.  This would allow them to a candidate that meets the approval of the Oligarchy without tarnishing their “conservative” brand in much the same manner they backed John McCain in 2008 and Mitt Romney in 2012.

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