ROMNEY WORDSWORTH – It is Wednesday, March 16, 2016, and you know what that means. It’s Trumpday! Let’s get started. The Executive Summary: Trump won four out of five states on Little Super Tuesday last night, and the Establishment Firewall held only in Ohio. Marco Rubio has dropped out of the race, and the field is down to three candidates: Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, and John Kasich. How did we get here?
The new third rail of American politics is amnesty for illegal immigration. Remember how both the Republican party leadership and the Beltway Commentariat all told Republican voters, including the conservative base, that “in order to stay politically competitive”, the Republican candidate for president in 2016 “would have to embrace” some form of amnesty, or risk alienating (permanently) the Hispanic voting bloc in this country. This was the conventional wisdom endlessly repeated in the media echo chamber as recently as the spring of 2015. This conventional wisdom was what led the rookie Senator Marco Rubio to join Democrat Senator Chuck Schumer and the rest of the Gang of 8 to try to push blanket amnesty through the U.S. Senate in 2014. This conventional wisdom was what led Jeb Bush to declare that he would win the nomination of the Republican Party without the conservative base. Amnesty was a financial imperative for any candidate hoping to win the GOP nomination, because amnesty was demanded by the Big Money Donor Class, and if you wanted their money to fund your campaign, you had to toe the amnesty line.
Then Donald Trump entered the race last June, and blew that tissue of lies away like a spider’s web in a hurricane. Every establishment candidate to campaign under the amnesty banner has gone down to bitter defeat. First Pataki, Graham, and all the other little party munchkins, and then the big top tier candidate, Jeb Bush. Last night the Amnesty Third Rail claimed Little Marco Rubio, whose viability as a candidate diminished in direct proportion to his being seen as the new main standard bearer of the pro-amnesty wing of the party. Rubio lost his home state of Florida in a massive way. Not only his presidential aspirations, but his entire political career may now be burned and charred beyond repair. The same is true to a lesser extent on the Democrat side, where the ‘Rats are losing 20% of their voters to Trump on immigration.
John Kasich won his home state of Ohio last night, and succeeded in denying 66 delegates to Donald Trump. But this was due to two factors: Kasich has a very strong ground game in Ohio by virtue of his being an incumbent Governor, and the electorate did not have time to absorb some of Kasich’s most extreme statements on immigration immediately before the voting started. The day before the election, Kasich proclaimed that if he is elected, he will give blanket amnesty to all the illegal aliens in the country within his first 100 days in office. Because, apparently, the Rust Belt of Ohio didn’t lose enough jobs yet to the NAFTA trade bill that Kasich voted for as a Congressman. I expect Donald Trump to now beat that drum loudly, and educate the voters in the remaining primaries just how extremely pro-amnesty John Kasich is. I expect Kasich will go down in flames in turn, clinging to the lightning rod of the pro-amnesty position.
Kasich’s chances of winning are this big.
Who is left in the race? We have the overt establishment candidate, John Kasich. We have the secret establishment candidate posing as an establishment challenger, Ted Cruz. I say that because of Cruz’ connection to, and funding by, Goldman Sachs through his wife (who is employed by Goldman Sachs) and through his multi-million dollar campaign loan (advanced by Goldman Sachs). I also say this because the Bush clan, through Neal Bush, brother of Jeb and W, is now raising money for Cruz. The Bushes don’t raise money for candidates that aren’t ultimately controllable by the Oligarchy they represent. Then there is Donald Trump, the self-financing, true outsider that the entire global ruling class is terrified of. You know a man by who his friends are, and who his enemies are. In my opinion, Trump has all the right enemies.
The Delegate Count so far: Trump 621, Cruz 396, Rubio 168, Kasich 138. Missouri delegates have not yet been apportioned from last night’s razor thin outcome. This should mean an even 26/26 split of Missouri’s 52 delegates between Trump and Cruz. That leaves Trump needing another 590 delegates. There are only 909 delegates left up for grabs in the remaining state primaries. Cruz needs over 700 more. If anyone is going to reach 1237 delegates, it is probably Trump. Half of the remaining states are in the North East, giving Trump a home field advantage, and where Ted Cruz’ prior comment about “New York City values” will be coming back to haunt him.
“We’re this close to a Trump Nomination!”
So, because Trump did not completely run the table last night and win Ohio, the Establishment will continue its strategy of trying to keep Trump from getting to 1237 delegates, and win the nomination outright. It is a prevent defense strategy. Kasich plans to stay in the race, even though it is already mathematically impossible for him to get to 1237 delegates. The Establishment wants to have a brokered convention. What will that mean? It means a Selection, not an Election. It means the will of the voters will be ignored. It means that the Electoral Process will be transformed into the worst kind of cynical auction. It will be an orgy of bribery and graft where delegates will sell their votes to the highest bidder.
Who are party delegates? They are low level party hacks and apparatchiks, who toil away in the hopes of being throw a bone or favor their way. Perhaps in the form of being named a county Freeholder. Perhaps being given the party backing to run for local sheriff or town council, where the backing of the party usually clears the field leaving only the general election. These are the politically ambitious and well connected worker ants who are both on the make and who are willing to be on the take. They are the worst possible class of human beings to depend on for integrity and principle in the event of a brokered convention.
Who does the party plan to parachute in to the convention and hand the nomination to? Mitt Romney went over like a lead balloon. John Boehner just endorsed Paul Ryan for President, which is odd considering he’s never filed the paperwork to run in the primary. But, hey, what do pesky rules matter when there is an oligarchy to prop up? As I wrote yesterday, this plan, if carried out, will only destroy the Republican Party for good. It will be worth it if a genuine opposition party rises in its place.