ROMNEY WORDSWORTH – Tuesday night, Donald Trump scored his third primary victory in a row, crushing it to win Nevada with 45.9% of the vote. He was followed by Rubio 23.9%, Cruz 21.4%, Carson 4.8%, and Kasich 3.6%. The delegate spread was 14, 7, 6, 1, 1, in favor of Trump. The most hilarious moment of the night was when Trump crashed a speech being given by Glen Beck for Ted Cruz, and stole the crowd to the other side of the caucus room when he started giving a counter-speech. Trump is now ahead in delegates from where Romney and McCain were at this point in the race. The pundits who said Trump could never be the GOP nominee have been very quiet all of a sudden.
Since last Wednesday, Donald Trump had an impressive victory in South Carolina, and Jeb Bush finally folded up his tent and admitted defeat, after he and his PAC’s spent $200 million. I won’t dwell on or repeat the already numerous post mortems on the Fall of the House of Bush, except to celebrate the fact that money, and money alone, still can’t buy the U.S. Presidency. The Voice of the People still matters (in Republican Primaries, anyway) and if a candidate isn’t selling what the voters want, no amount of money will turn that into votes.
What happened to the supporters of Jeb!? The surprise answer, according to the latest Rasmussen Poll, says that half of them went to Donald Trump! Since Jeb! bowed out of the race, Trump’s support rose 5 points, from 31% to 35%, in Rasmussen polling. Cruz has dropped 3 points, from 20% down to 17%, while Rubio has remained flat at 21%. Ben Carson and John Kasich have seen modest increases to their voter shares. Bush received just under 10% of the vote in South Carolina.
The poll also revealed that 71% of Republican voters now favor building a wall along the U.S/Mexico border and among these voters, 43% support Trump.
The poll was conducted during Feb. 21-22, and since then Trump has called for an audit of the Federal Reserve and the prosecution of Hillary Clinton, both of which will likely garner him even greater levels of support among the conservative base of the Republican Party.
This week Trump seemed to drop earth shaking bombshells every day: He announced that he would release to the public the missing 28 pages of the 9/11 Commission Report (widely thought to contain incriminating proof of Saudi Arabia’s involvement in the attack, and that government officials in the U.S. had our forces “stand down”, and order the demolition of Building 7). If even a fraction of that turns out to be true, the first four years of Trump’s administration will be taken up by a series of treason trials to rival Nuremburg. He called for auditing the Federal Reserve (something J.F.K. did, and then wound up dead within days of doing so) and prosecuting Hillary Clinton for Email-gate if the Obama Regime refuses to do so until Trump takes office. Trump is certainly accumulating all the right enemies to warm a Libertarian’s heart.
Looking ahead to Super Tuesday, the polls are looking good for Trump, overall, but far from perfect. In the pivotal state of Texas, one of the three richest states of the Union in terms of delegates, Trump is trailing Ted Cruz, 37% to 29%. Rubio is a distant 3rd at 15%. A win in Texas keeps Cruz in contention, and gives him enough delegates to matter if the convention ends up being brokered.
Other states where Trump is trailing is New Mexico, where Cruz is up by one point over Trump, and Utah, where Rubio is up by two over Cruz, 24% to 22%, while Trump trails a distant 3rd at 18%. But in all the other states that vote on Super Tuesday, Trump has a comfortable lead, see below:
Donald Trump even has the prospect of winning more than 50% of the vote in Massachusetts. In order to avoid a brokered convention, Trump must win over 50% of the vote in 8 states under current Republican Primary rules. Usually a candidate gets these kinds of dominant wins when it has become apparent that their nomination is inevitable. Getting such a dominant share of the primary vote this early is a noteworthy achievement for The Donald, one I’m sure he will not let anyone forget.
Another feather shaping up in The Donald’s cap is Ohio, where Trump is leading, polling five points ahead of the sitting Governor of that state, John Kasich. Expect Kasich to leave the race for sure if he can’t even win his own home state. No surprise here: Three out of every four Republican Primary voters surveyed in South Carolina approve of Trump’s plan to build a wall on the border and deport those who are here illegally. Kasich, along with the defunct Bush and the furiously tap dancing Rubio, would rather give them all hugs at the border and believe that deportation is “inhumane”. A mighty rarified set of ethics to follow for the 104 million Americans who can’t find a job.
Over on the Dark Side…Hillary won the Democrat primary in Nevada by winning a card drawing, shades of her almost certain cheating in Iowa to win 6 coin tosses in a row. She won South Carolina more convincingly, but as Hillary continues to “win ugly”, it is beginning to dawn on the idealist followers of Bernie Sanders that the Democrat Party doesn’t do real elections, it does heavily scripted show trials for the masses. Bernie has just about finished being useful to the ‘Rat Party Politburo. With any luck, his despairing and disillusioned followers will stay at home on Election Day in November.