ROMNEY WORDSWORTH – It is Wednesday, February 10, 2016, and you know what that means: It’s Trumpday! Let’s look behind the numbers of last night’s primary in New Hampshire and discuss Winners and Losers.
First, the numbers themselves:
In the Republican Primary, it was Trump 35.2%, Kasich 15.8%, Cruz 11.7%, Bush 11.1%, Rubio 10.5%, Christie 7.5%, Fiorina 4.2%, Carson 2.3%
In the Democrat Primary, it was Sanders 60%, Clinton 38.3%
WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?
It is a solid win for Donald Trump for a number of reasons. First of all, Trump met his polling numbers, which is very important because the Iowa results had cast the accuracy of the polls in doubt. With confidence in the polls restored, Trump’s stock rises, because Trump continues to lead in the polls nationally and in the various states whose primary elections are coming up next.
Second of all, Donald Trump won by a crushing margin, beating the second place finisher by over 19 points. This denied the Establishment the opportunity to claim a narrow win meant that Trump had peaked and hit his ceiling of support. He has denied any of his opponents any momentum coming out of New Hampshire.
Thirdly, Trump won in every demographic category. This is HUGE! It means that Trump’s appeal is not as narrow as his detractors had claimed. Trump won with men, Trump won with women. Trump won with the young, Trump won with the old. This denies the Establishment being able to claim that Trump appeals to too narrow a segment of the voters in a national election. His win margins were similarly impressive: 37% of men, and 32% of women. Trump won 37% of the 18-29 year old bracket. He won 35% of the 30-44 year old bracket. He won 35% of the 45-64 year old bracket. He won the 65 and older bracket by 29%.
Fourth, Trump won in a liberal Northeast State, representing a universal appeal that will play as well in New York as it does in Alabama. Trump, unlike any other Republican candidate, has the potential to put many Democrat stronghold states like New York and New Jersey into play, making Democrats defend in states they can normally take for granted.
What to do if you are a Regressive Leftist in the face of so much Trump Winning? You resort to running a picture of him as a clown on your front page if you are the New York Daily News, or you keep calling him “racist, sexist, xenophobic” if you are the Huffing and Puffing Post. Way to go, Lefties. Keeping it classy and graceful, as always. NOT.
Kasich was a surprise finish at second place. What does it mean? Not much for John Kasich. Kasich did well in New Hampshire because he spent more than 100 days campaigning there, and held over 100 townhalls, getting personal facetime with a substantial number of individual voters. As the election schedule accelerates, that will not be possible for any candidate. Kasich is a liberal campaigning in a liberal state. Kasich himself proclaimed recently in New Hampshire that “I should be running in the Democratic race.” I could not agree more. If you were a Democrat in New Hampshire, and didn’t want to vote for a Crook, or a Communist, I’m sure John Kasich, running on Big Statism and Blanket Amnesty, was an attractive alternative. As the race moves to South Carolina, Kasich’s appeal will evaporate faster than a snow cone at a Dixieland Carnival.
Kasich will either bow out of the race after a near last place finish in South Carolina, or he will hang on until March 15th, when Ohio holds its primary. At that point, Kasich will be playing the spoiler, hoping to pocket as many Delegates as bargaining chips as he can to play for favors at the Cleveland Nominating Convention. Kasich picked up 3 delegates from his 2nd place finish.
Cruz picked up 2 delegates from his third place finish. For Cruz, New Hampshire was simply a bye week, while he warms up for the real loggerhead battles with Trump through the Sun Belt, starting in South Carolina.
A Fourth Place finish would be the end of the road for most candidates, but not Jeb Bush. He still has millions of other people’s money to spend, a chip on his shoulder, and the honor of his family legacy to fight for. None of these things are a reason to run for President. The hapless Bush was punked by Trump, who waited for Bush to start his post-election address to the media to come out and give his own victory speech. All the press feeds moved over to The Donald, of course, sucking all the oxygen away from Jeb. Again. I laughed at this, but Mrs. Wordsworth was annoyed. My household continues to be a microcosm of Trump’s delicate relationship with the female vote. My wife thought Trump’s move was crass. I saw it through the lens of a male high school student, watching the mouthy, Richie Rich preppy picking a fight with the Football Team Quarterback. In the dynamics of male power matchups, I don’t feel bad for Bush, who has said horrible things about Donald Trump. Far worse than anything he’s been willing to say about Hillary Clinton. So when Trump stuffed him in a locker last night, proverbially, I just smiled. Bush had it coming.
Fifth place for Rubio is a disaster for him, confirming he is a seriously wounded candidate, mostly from self-inflicted wounds. Gone is any momentum from Iowa. Rubio could have started consolidating his position as the undisputed Establishment Candidate. He failed, and the Establishment vote is still very much up for grabs. This will benefit Donald Trump greatly.
Chris Christie had followed a strategy similar to John Kasich. Christie had spent 72 days pressing the flesh in New Hampshire. Christie had a stellar debate performance right before the New Hampshire election. Christie performed a valuable service to the country by exposing how weak and scripted a candidate Marco Rubio is. Despite all this, Christie’s Sixth Place finish was an unmitigated disaster for him, of Hindenburg proportions. Single digits, no delegates, and he won’t even qualify for the next debate. I expect Christie to leave the race this week.
Ditto for Carly Fiorina at Seventh Place, and a miniscule 4% of the vote. This will disqualify her for the next debate, which will be two in a row. With not even a Kiddie Table Debate to give her some visibility, I don’t see any reason for her to continue. I expect her to leave the race soon as well.
Ben Carson didn’t campaign in New Hampshire, and as such his last place finish is spit balls off a battleship to him. His big test will come in South Carolina, where we will see if he can show strength in a state with a large pool of black voters to build a voter base from.
On the Dark Side of the Force, it was a contest between a Crook and a Communist. The Communist won big, 60% to 39%. Hillary Clinton LOST in every demographic except the 65 and older crowd. Yes, you read that right: Hillary, the Patron Saint of Third Wave Feminism, LOST the female vote, only pulling in 44% of the women’s vote. This, more than anything else, tells you how much her campaign is in trouble.
But in the Soviet Politburo that is Democrat Party politics, Hillary came out of last night with the same number of Delegates as Bernie, because of the Democrat institution of Super Delegates, which allows the Party apparatus to make it virtually impossible for any unapproved challenger to win its party nomination. While not the Coronation it was originally planned to be, the Democrats continue a Potemkin Village charade process where the will of the voters counts for very little. Clinton is still in big trouble though, because her show of weakness has the sharks circling. They smell blood, and their names are Joe Biden and Michael Bloomberg, and they will rip her apart if Don Obama gives the signal. In the Democrat Party, as with the Sith and the Dark Side, the only truly unforgiveable sin is weakness.
Lastly, the other Big Winner of last night was the Electoral Process itself. Many, Many observers expected the Establishments of both parties to resort to blatant election fraud, as the Democrats did in Iowa to save Hillary from a loss there. Even persons you would never expect, like Scott Adams, the author of the DILBERT comic strip, came out with public statements saying they expected the Establishment to steal the election to stop Trump. For whatever reason, last night the Establishment Did NOT Strike Back.