ELDER PATRIOT – Despite the unanimous declarations by the mainstream media that last night’s results in Wisconsin indicate a collapse in support for Donald Trump you should not believe them.
We’ve seen Cruz gain larger blowout victories in Texas, Kansas, Maine, Idaho and Utah earlier in the race only to wind up further behind in the delegate race after each of those wins because of Donald Trump’s strength elsewhere.
Cruz won his home state of Texas by 17 points on Super Tuesday but the media couldn’t make much out of it because he lost seven of the other ten states that were contested that night.
Less than a week later he won Kansas by 23 points and Maine by 13 points but Trump carried the vote in five of the other seven states that held primaries that night,
On March 8th Cruz blew Trump’s doors off by amassing a 20% win in Idaho. Trump won the other three primaries that night.
Super Tuesday II was next up and Trump won five the six states that night. Cruz was shut out.
By this point Trump had amassed a sizable delegate lead and the mainstream media began tabulating the “delegate math.” Trump needed 61% of the remaining delegates to be contested in order to secure the 1237 delegates to avoid a contested convention and secure the nomination on the first ballot.
At this point it became obvious that if Trump won Arizona he had a reasonable path to the magic number. The MSM didn’t report it that way (I did) and instead they focused on Cruz’s hard to believe 55-point blowout of Trump in Utah. It’s hard to believe because that was two and a half times the margin that the final polls had shown.
In any event, when the dust cleared the next morning Trump has won Arizona and American Somoa to walk away with 63% of that night’s delegates and more than the 59% that would lead him to the magic 1237.
Last night Cruz beat Trump by 13 points and garnered 36 of the 42 delegates that were in play and the mainstream media seized upon the fact that it was last night’s lone primary and they painted it as a turning point. That amounts to journalistic malpractice.
The mainstream media had created a narrative that Trump should’ve won Wisconsin so they were able to report that the result signaled a sea change in America’s thinking. That was never true.
The odds were always stacked against Trump in Wisconsin where the Republican infrastructure is under the control of Governor Scott Walker who had endorsed Cruz. And it was once presided over by Reince Priebus who was their chairman. Speaker Paul Ryan (another Wisconsinite) hovering in the background also worked against Donald Trump.
The truth is Trump should’ve lost Wisconsin by a greater margin than he lost Texas.
Regardless, the race now turns to New York where Trump leads Cruz 53% to 19%. If the polls hold Trump will pick up all ninety-five delegates because he will pass the 50% threshold that automatically triggers the winner-take-all rule.
If that happens, Trump will have more than made up for Cruz’s Wisconsin delegate haul by having secured 72% of the pledged delegates from the two states combined.
New York is Donald Trump’s firewall. If he loses or only garners a narrow victory there then he’s in trouble. If he sweeps all 95 delegates in New York he will be in control of 838 pledged delegates. That will leave him in need of 399 more delegates from the 674 still up for grabs. That’s 59%. That’s less than the 61% he needed going forward from earlier in the race and the upcoming primaries are going to be contested in the Northeast that should be much friendlier states for Trump than the Midwest has been.
Trump remains on track even if no one is willing to report it.