ROMNEY WORDSWORTH – Today voters go to the polls in Wisconsin. This will be a make or break effort for the myriad of anti-Trump forces within and without the Republican Party. If Ted Cruz wins, he can credibly go forward as the anti-Trump candidate, and stay within a mathematical possibility of gaining 1237 delegates. For the Oligarchy, any outcome is preferable to a Trump win, which has set up an anti-Trump firewall in Wisconsin to try and deny Trump from getting to 1237 delegates. Trump continues to poll with strong leads in states coming up in April, like New York and Pennsylvania.
Trump has suffered the worst week of his campaign, having stepped into Chris Matthews’ Gotcha Minefield on abortion, and allowing himself to become embroiled in a “whose wife is prettier” spat with Ted Cruz. Trump is a political neophyte, and not a professional politician. So, no one should be shocked that Trump would blunder into the rhetorical traps that Chris Matthews set in order to destroy Trump, and re-energize a listless Democrat base.
In terms of staying on message, Trump has veered far, far off course. Which is a shame, because he did have some substantive victories last week, which were buried under an avalanche of bad press. These included a first ever endorsement of Trump by the U.S. Border Patrol. The Border Patrol has never given an endorsement to a presidential candidate before. I view it as a last, desperate cry for help from the American people, as Barack Obama ordered the Border Patrol to release confirmed illegal alien criminals, of whom 85% promptly vanished into the American heartland.
Trump also released a comprehensive tax reform plan, which charts a path for solid economic growth. This has largely been ignored by the national press, which tells me it must be a pretty good plan. Otherwise they would spend time attacking it.
The polls in Wisconsin resemble a compass sitting on top of a magnet, spinning crazily in different directions almost simultaneously:
Wisconsin Republican Presidential Primary
Poll Date Sample MoE Cruz Trump Kasich Spread
RCP Average 3/24 – 4/3 — — 39.2 34.5 20.0 Cruz +4.7
ARG 4/1 – 4/3 400 LV 5.0 32 42 23 Trump +10
Emerson 3/30 – 4/3 549 LV 4.1 40 35 21 Cruz +5
CBS /YouGov 3/29 – 4/1 675 LV 5.7 43 37 18 Cruz +6
FOX Business 3/28 – 3/30 742 LV 3.5 42 32 19 Cruz +10
Loras College 3/28 – 3/29 416 LV 4.8 38 31 18 Cruz +7
Marquette 3/24 – 3/28 471 LV 5.8 40 30 21 Cruz +10
The latest poll, taken by ARG, shows Trump springing back to a ten point lead, while the FOX Business poll taken just two days earlier shows Cruz up by ten. Certainly the prior week of polling showed that Cruz had caught up to and surpassed Trump in Wisconsin, but now shows that lead settling back into a statistical dead heat between Trump and Cruz.
In a close race, this probably means a loss for Trump. The entire political class in Wisconsin is arrayed against Trump, from Governor Scott Walker on down to even local talk radio. It will be party apparatchiks who count the votes. In a close race, we can expect some creative counting to give the win to Cruz. Cruz’ wins have been clouded with widespread reporting of voting “irregularities”, from Iowa, to Texas, and everywhere in between.
The bottom line is that Wisconsin remains a boiling kettle of voter volatility. The race is too close to call, and the sense of the voters there appears to be too turbulent to get a handle on. I’m still wondering if and when it will dawn on primary voters that a vote for John Kasich is a vote for the Oligarchy to steal the primary election from the voters and turn it in to an Insider Selection. Increasingly, a vote for Ted Cruz means pretty much the same thing.
Despite all of the attacks, Trump’s share of the vote has held surprisingly firm, whereas other candidates would have had a complete meltdown under the relentless media assault. This raises the truism that the only guy who can separate Trump from his supporters is…Donald Trump.