ELDER PATRIOT – The importance attached to the Iowa caucuses by the mainstream media is difficult to understand. Granted, it is the first test of a candidate’s appeal but in no way has it proven to be an accurate indicator of the mood of the nation. It is worthwhile, however, to examine the process in Iowa to expose how the Republican Party Establishment rigs the vote in order to maintain their power.
There have been nine presidential elections since 1980. Of the nine Republican caucuses conducted in those years, three have been uncontested because the Republicans had a sitting president at the time. They were Ronald Reagan in 1984, George H.W. Bush in 1992 and George W. Bush in 2004.
Of the six remaining caucuses that were contested the Hawkeye state backed the eventual nominee only twice, George W. Bush in 2000 and Bob Dole in 1996.
In 2008 the eventual nominee, John McCain finished fourth with only 13% of the vote. Mike Huckabee won the caucuses that year with 34% of the vote. Interestingly, Huckabee eventually threw his support to McCain when he withdrew from the race only two months later.
Then there was 2012 when Rick Santorum won Iowa and almost immediately disappeared. There was also concern expressed by the Ron Paul camp because at least 9 boxes containing votes were allegedly lost dropping Paul into third place.
Iowa will send thirty delegates to the Republican Convention. The caucuses will award only 22 of the 1865 total delegates to the convention that the voters control. At approximately 1/85 of the total Iowa is relatively unimportant in determining who the eventual nominee will be. Iowa’s role is further diminished by the fact that the 22 delegates won through the caucuses are proportionately distributed.
Using the Real Clear Politics averages of recent polls, would mean Ted Cruz and Donald Trump would both secure the allegiance of 5 or 6 delegates. Marco Rubio would be the real winner even though his support is half of Cruz’s and Trump’s.
Here’s why. Iowa has those other eight delegates that will vote however party leadership tells them to vote. That means if the party has designated Rubio as their favored son to carry the establishment flag they will direct those eight delegates to commit to voting for Rubio at the convention. Rubio can walk away from Iowa with 10 or 11 committed delegates despite only garnering one-eight of Iowans support.
The unimportance of the Iowa caucuses is best illustrated by comparing them to Super Tuesday when five states with a potential of 275 delegates are up for the winner to take all.
Iowa’s record of picking more losers than winners, coupled with the relatively insignificant number of delegates the winner awarded to the winner renders the Iowa primary virtually meaningless.