ROMNEY WORDSWORTH – Voters go to the polls in thirteen states tonight. When the dust settles, the GOP field is sure to get winnowed even further. In particular, Ted Cruz faces a do or die last stand to win Texas. If he doesn’t win his home state, his candidacy is finished.
The states holding primaries on March 1st are (with recent polling data):
Alabama: Trump 42%, Rubio 19%, Cruz 16%
50 delegates, hybrid allocation: 20% threshold, 50% for winner take all
Alaska: Trump 28.4%, Cruz 19.1% (includes Republicans and Independents)
28 delegates, proportional allocation: 13% qualifying threshold
Arkansas: Cruz 27%, Trump 23%, Rubio 23%
40 delegates, hybrid allocation: 15% threshold, 50% winner take all
Colorado: No recent polling data available
37 delegates, caucus allocation: no thresholds
Georgia: Trump 39%, Rubio 24%, Cruz 21%
76 delegates, hybrid allocation: 20% threshold, 50% winner take all
Massachusetts: Trump 47%, Rubio 15%, Kasich 11%
42 delegates, proportional allocation: 5% qualifying threshold
Minnesota: Rubio 23%, Cruz 21%, Trump 18%
38 delegates, caucus allocation: 10% threshold, 85% winner take all
Oklahoma: Trump 35%, Cruz 23%, Rubio 22%
43 delegates, hybrid allocation: 15% threshold, 50% winner take all
Tennessee: Trump 33%, Cruz 17%
58 delegates, hybrid allocation: 20% threshold, 67% winner take all
Texas: Cruz 33%, Trump 32%, Rubio 17%
155 delegates, hybrid allocation: 20% threshold, 50% winner take all
Vermont: Trump 33%, Rubio 14%, Kasich 14%
16 delegates, hybrid allocation: 20% threshold, 50% winner take all
Virginia: Trump 36.8%, Rubio 22.3%, Cruz 17.5%
49 delegates, proportional allocation: no qualifying threshold or winner take all
Wyoming: No polling data available
29 delegates, caucus allocation: no thresholds
Texas offers the jackpot of 155 delegates, while Georgia (76) and Tennessee (58) are the other two big delegate states. Based on current polling, Donald Trump stands to win the following delegates:
Alabama: All 50
Tennessee: All 58
Vermont: All 16
For a total of approximately 338, not including Colorado and Wyoming, which are both caucus states with no polling data. Adding in those estimates, Trump should clear 350 delegates out of a total of 661 up for grabs. Cruz should clear over 150 to 200, due in large part to his expected half share of the delegates from Texas. Rubio will be a distant third with around 100, with the balance being picked up by John Kasich and a select few states like Minnesota and Massachusetts.
Going into Super Tuesday, the media ambushed Trump, trying to link him to David Duke and the KKK. Rubio, the Establishment standard bearer, went into kamikaze mode, destroying his own gravitas in order to mock the alleged size of Trump’s penis. Yes, it sounds like The Onion is now writing the script of our reality.
RNC Headquarters, on the Potomac River in Washington, D.C.
Meanwhile, in the fevered swamps of Washington D.C., the Legion of Doom, a.k.a. the RINO leadership, is rumored to have given Marco Rubio until March 15th, and the mission to win his home state of Florida. If he fails, the RINOs plan to launch Mitt Romney either into the primary as a replacement standard bearer, or as a third party candidate. Under either scenario, in my humble opinion, he is more likely to peel off support from Hillary Clinton than Trump. I don’t see a single Trump voter changing their vote for Mitt Romney.
So, if you live in a Super Tuesday State, go out and vote as if your life depended on it, because it very well may. If the Establishment preserves it’s hegemonic control on power, this will be the last election that matters in your lifetime.